Aarhus vs Odense
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
WWDDL
LLWLLThe score model makes a Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aarhus win — 65.3% vs 53.8% implied (+11.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus 2.13 – 0.89 Odense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus win | 65.3% | 53.8% | +11.5% |
| Draw | 20.8% | 23.9% | -3.1% |
| Odense win | 13.9% | 22.2% | -8.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 57.7% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 36.5% | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 57.9% | -5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 39.6% | +0.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarhus 34 / Odense 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.