Aarhus vs Odense
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
LDDLD
DDLWDThe score model made an Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus 2.14 – 0.89 Odense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus win | 65.4% | 53.2% | +12.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 24.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Odense win | 13.8% | 22.7% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 58.7% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 37.4% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 58.9% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 39.4% | +0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarhus 33.8 / Odense 28.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.