Brondby vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-17 · 19:00 CET
LWDWW
WLLLDThe score model makes a Brondby win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.5% vs 62.2% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brondby 1.79 – 0.90 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brondby win | 57.7% | 65.2% | -7.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 20.6% | +3.9% |
| Sonderjyske win | 17.8% | 14.2% | +3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 58.9% | -8.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 37.8% | -9.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 53.4% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 40.3% | -6.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brondby 34.4 / Sonderjyske 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.