Brondby vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-17 · 19:00 CET
WLLLL
LLLDWThe score model made a Brondby win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brondby 1.80 – 0.91 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brondby win | 57.6% | 67.2% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 19.7% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Sonderjyske win | 17.9% | 13.1% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 59.3% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 38.1% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 52.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 40.6% | -6.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brondby 34.3 / Sonderjyske 29.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.