Vejle vs Koge
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-11-21 · 13:30 CET
LWDDW
WLDLDThe score model makes a Vejle win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 60.9% vs 58.0% implied (+3.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vejle 2.13 – 1.04 Koge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vejle win | 62.0% | 63.8% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 20.7% | +0.5% |
| Koge win | 16.9% | 15.5% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 62.5% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.1% | 42.0% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 57.0% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 42.8% | +1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vejle 12.9 / Koge 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vejle vs Koge in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.