Vendsyssel vs Koge
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-10-11 · 14:00 CET
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DDDDWThe score model makes a Vendsyssel win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 40.2% vs 35.0% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vendsyssel 1.53 – 1.28 Koge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vendsyssel win | 42.5% | 41.6% | +0.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.6% | -1.1% |
| Koge win | 31.0% | 30.8% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 51.5% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 31.1% | -0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 56.4% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 35.0% | +5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vendsyssel 17.6 / Koge 36.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.