Hobro vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
WLLDL
DWLDDThe score model makes a Kolding IF win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 60.9% vs 52.1% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hobro 1.07 – 1.18 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro win | 32.3% | 32.5% | -0.2% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.0% | +2.4% |
| Kolding IF win | 37.3% | 39.5% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | 47.9% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 27.6% | -8.5% |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 53.6% | -7.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 32.9% | -4.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hobro 36.5 / Kolding IF 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.