Hobro vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
DLDDL
DWLWLThe score model made a Kolding IF win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hobro 1.08 – 1.18 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro win | 32.3% | 34.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 28.4% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Kolding IF win | 37.4% | 37.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 47.6% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 27.5% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 53.5% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 32.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hobro 36.1 / Kolding IF 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hobro vs Kolding IF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.