Hillerod vs Fredericia
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-10-10 · 13:00 CET
LWDWD
DLWDDThe score model makes a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.9% vs 57.7% implied (+16.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hillerod 1.10 – 1.44 Fredericia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillerod win | 28.1% | 18.5% | +9.6% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 21.6% | +6.3% |
| Fredericia win | 44.0% | 59.9% | -15.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 61.7% | -15.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 40.5% | -15.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 58.6% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 42.3% | -16.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hillerod 36.5 / Fredericia 17.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.