Esbjerg vs Aalborg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
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DWDDDThe score model made an Esbjerg win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Esbjerg 1.53 – 1.52 Aalborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esbjerg win | 37.6% | 32.0% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.9% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Aalborg win | 37.0% | 42.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 61.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 40.5% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 64.0% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 41.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Esbjerg 32.6 / Aalborg 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.