Esbjerg vs Vendsyssel
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
LLLDL
WWLDDThe score model made an Esbjerg win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Esbjerg 1.74 – 1.32 Vendsyssel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esbjerg win | 47.2% | 47.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Vendsyssel win | 29.1% | 27.5% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 60.3% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 39.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 61.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 41.3% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Esbjerg 31.1 / Vendsyssel 15.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.