Koge vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
LLLLL
LDLDLThe score model makes an Kolding IF win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 60.6% vs 46.2% implied (+14.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koge 0.95 – 1.32 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Koge win | 27.0% | 31.7% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.4% | +0.4% |
| Kolding IF win | 45.2% | 40.9% | +4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 53.8% | -14.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 33.5% | -14.2% |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 58.3% | -13.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 36.9% | -10.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koge 35 / Kolding IF 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.