Koge vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
DDDDW
DWLDDThe score model made a Kolding IF win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koge 0.95 – 1.31 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koge win | 27.4% | 26.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 26.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Kolding IF win | 44.9% | 46.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 54.4% | -15.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 33.5% | -14.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 57.8% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 37.2% | -10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koge 34.8 / Kolding IF 33.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.