Hobro vs Aalborg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
WLLDL
LDWDDThe score model made an Aalborg win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hobro 1.33 – 1.38 Aalborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro win | 36.1% | 39.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 27.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Aalborg win | 38.7% | 33.4% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 53.6% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 33.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 58.0% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 36.5% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hobro 35 / Aalborg 27.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.