Hobro vs Aalborg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
WLWWW
WWWDLThe score model makes an Aalborg win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.5% vs 66.7% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hobro 1.32 – 1.38 Aalborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro win | 35.8% | 34.0% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.3% | -1.7% |
| Aalborg win | 38.6% | 38.7% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 53.8% | -3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 33.3% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 58.0% | -3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 36.9% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hobro 35.2 / Aalborg 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.