Fredericia vs Aarhus Fremad
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-21 · 19:00 CET
DLWDD
DDWDLThe score model made a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredericia 1.52 – 1.22 Aarhus Fremad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericia win | 44.5% | 59.6% | -15.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 22.7% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Aarhus Fremad win | 30.7% | 17.6% | +13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 57.2% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 36.3% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 54.6% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 39.6% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fredericia 14.4 / Aarhus Fremad 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.