Fredericia vs Aarhus Fremad
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-21 · 19:00 CET
WWDDW
DWLWDThe score model makes a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aarhus Fremad win — 30.8% vs 19.2% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredericia 1.50 – 1.21 Aarhus Fremad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericia win | 44.0% | 57.1% | -13.1% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 23.8% | +1.4% |
| Aarhus Fremad win | 30.8% | 19.2% | +11.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 56.8% | -5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 36.3% | -7.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 55.5% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 39.0% | -11.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fredericia 14.5 / Aarhus Fremad 24.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.