Vendsyssel vs Hillerod
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-20 · 19:00 CET
WWLDD
LWDWDThe score model made a Hillerod win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vendsyssel 1.32 – 1.65 Hillerod.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendsyssel win | 30.8% | 40.6% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Hillerod win | 45.3% | 32.9% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | 56.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.5% | 35.6% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 60.3% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.3% | 38.8% | +4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vendsyssel 14.5 / Hillerod 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.