Koge vs Hvidovre IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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DWWDWThe score model made a Hvidovre IF win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koge 0.99 – 1.54 Hvidovre IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koge win | 24.5% | 26.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Hvidovre IF win | 50.2% | 47.3% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 55.7% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 34.9% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 59.1% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 38.0% | -8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koge 34.5 / Hvidovre IF 31.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.