Hillerod vs Aarhus Fremad
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-15 · 13:00 CET
LWLLL
WDWLWThe score model makes an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aarhus Fremad win — 41.7% vs 34.5% implied (+7.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hillerod 1.31 – 1.49 Aarhus Fremad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillerod win | 33.6% | 38.4% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 27.1% | -2.4% |
| Aarhus Fremad win | 41.7% | 34.5% | +7.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 54.2% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 33.8% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 58.5% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 37.0% | -4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hillerod 34.6 / Aarhus Fremad 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.