Esbjerg vs Hobro
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-15 · 14:00 CET
LLLDL
WLLDLThe score model made an Esbjerg win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Esbjerg 1.57 – 1.20 Hobro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esbjerg win | 46.1% | 46.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.8% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Hobro win | 29.4% | 27.5% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 57.2% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 36.5% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 59.4% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 38.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Esbjerg 30 / Hobro 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.