Dukla Prague vs Ostrava B
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-12 · 17:00 CET
LWWWD
LWDWLThe score model makes a Dukla Prague win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 63.0% vs 55.1% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dukla Prague 2.01 – 1.24 Ostrava B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dukla Prague win | 55.4% | 51.3% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 21.3% | 25.2% | -3.9% |
| Ostrava B win | 23.3% | 23.5% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 55.1% | +7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 34.5% | +6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 56.5% | +4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 38.4% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dukla Prague 14.3 / Ostrava B 34.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.