Kromeriz vs Pribram
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-10 · 17:30 CET
WDDLL
WDLDWThe score model made a Pribram win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kromeriz 1.07 – 1.19 Pribram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kromeriz win | 32.8% | 33.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.1% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Pribram win | 39.1% | 38.2% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 50.4% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 29.8% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 55.5% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 34.1% | -5.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kromeriz 30.2 / Pribram 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.