Slavia Prague B vs Vlasim
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-09 · 17:00 CET
WDDLL
DLWLWThe score model makes a Slavia Prague B win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.2% vs 56.0% implied (+7.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Prague B 1.56 – 1.51 Vlasim.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague B win | 39.3% | 43.4% | -4.1% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 25.1% | -1.4% |
| Vlasim win | 37.0% | 31.5% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 63.7% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 44.0% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 65.6% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 44.4% | -5.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Prague B 36.5 / Vlasim 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.