Kromeriz vs Prostejov
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-29 · 17:30 CET
LWDDL
WLDDDThe score model made a Kromeriz win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kromeriz 1.26 – 1.17 Prostejov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kromeriz win | 38.9% | 42.7% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Prostejov win | 34.5% | 29.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 49.6% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 29.4% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 54.4% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 34.0% | -11.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kromeriz 28.6 / Prostejov 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.