Dukla Prague vs Jihlava
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-28 · 18:00 CET
LWWWD
LLWWWThe score model made a Dukla Prague win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dukla Prague 1.74 – 0.99 Jihlava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dukla Prague win | 55.4% | 50.5% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 26.1% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Jihlava win | 21.7% | 23.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 53.1% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 32.9% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 55.4% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 36.5% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dukla Prague 11.8 / Jihlava 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.