Vlasim vs Pribram
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
DLWLW
DWDLDThe score model made a Vlasim win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vlasim 1.32 – 0.90 Pribram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlasim win | 46.5% | 43.2% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.3% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Pribram win | 25.9% | 30.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 56.8% | -18.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 35.7% | -17.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 59.8% | -16.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 38.8% | -11.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vlasim 39.9 / Pribram 30.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.