Vlasim vs Pribram
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
LDLWD
DDWWDThe score model makes a Vlasim win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 61.8% vs 46.4% implied (+15.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vlasim 1.31 – 0.90 Pribram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vlasim win | 46.4% | 45.6% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.5% | +1.2% |
| Pribram win | 25.9% | 27.8% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 53.6% | -15.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.4% | 33.1% | -14.7% |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 57.0% | -13.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 36.1% | -8.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vlasim 40.1 / Pribram 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.