Usti nad Labem vs Dukla Prague
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
LWWDD
WWDWLThe score model makes a Usti nad Labem win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 63.9% vs 53.1% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Usti nad Labem 1.73 – 1.57 Dukla Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Usti nad Labem win | 42.0% | 36.9% | +5.1% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 27.7% | -5.1% |
| Dukla Prague win | 35.4% | 35.3% | +0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | 53.1% | +10.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.8% | 32.8% | +9.0% |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 57.7% | +7.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 36.0% | +4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Usti nad Labem 23.2 / Dukla Prague 11 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.