Usti nad Labem vs Dukla Prague
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
WWDLW
LWWWDThe score model made an Usti nad Labem win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Usti nad Labem 1.73 – 1.57 Dukla Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usti nad Labem win | 42.0% | 35.5% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 26.9% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Dukla Prague win | 35.4% | 37.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | 53.6% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.8% | 32.9% | +9.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 57.9% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 36.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Usti nad Labem 23.1 / Dukla Prague 11 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.