Zizkov vs Ostrava B
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 10:15 CET
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WWDLLThe score model makes a Zizkov win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ostrava B win — 36.6% vs 30.8% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zizkov 1.59 – 1.51 Ostrava B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zizkov win | 40.2% | 42.8% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 26.4% | -3.2% |
| Ostrava B win | 36.6% | 30.8% | +5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 54.9% | +4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 34.3% | +3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 58.6% | +3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 37.2% | +1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zizkov 37.2 / Ostrava B 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.