Zizkov vs Ostrava B
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 10:15 CET
LLDWW
LWDWLThe score model made a Zizkov win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zizkov 1.57 – 1.52 Ostrava B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zizkov win | 39.3% | 42.9% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 26.6% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Ostrava B win | 37.4% | 30.5% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 55.1% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 34.6% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 58.8% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 38.0% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zizkov 37 / Ostrava B 32.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.