Taborsko vs Opava
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
WLDDL
DDLDWThe score model made a Taborsko win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Taborsko 1.33 – 0.84 Opava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taborsko win | 48.5% | 44.0% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.6% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Opava win | 24.0% | 27.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 46.6% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 26.4% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 51.8% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 32.1% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Taborsko 39.4 / Opava 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.