Pribram vs Prostejov
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
DWDLD
WLDDDThe score model made a Pribram win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pribram 1.40 – 0.75 Prostejov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pribram win | 52.9% | 49.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.8% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Prostejov win | 20.4% | 23.3% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 50.1% | -13.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 29.7% | -12.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% | 53.4% | -13.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 34.1% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pribram 29.6 / Prostejov 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.