Pribram vs Prostejov
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
DDDWW
DWDLLThe score model makes a Pribram win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 63.5% vs 49.1% implied (+14.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pribram 1.40 – 0.75 Prostejov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pribram win | 52.9% | 53.8% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 25.7% | +0.9% |
| Prostejov win | 20.4% | 20.5% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 50.9% | -14.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 30.4% | -13.2% |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% | 52.3% | -12.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 34.5% | -6.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pribram 29.7 / Prostejov 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.