Ostrava vs Teplice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-21 · 15:00 CET
DLDLW
DLDWLThe score model makes an Ostrava win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.4% vs 62.3% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostrava 1.44 – 1.27 Teplice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ostrava win | 39.8% | 45.0% | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.0% | +2.1% |
| Teplice win | 32.1% | 29.0% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 55.1% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 34.1% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 58.4% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 37.7% | -9.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ostrava 43.6 / Teplice 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ostrava vs Teplice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.