Bohemians vs Plzen
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-21 · 18:00 CET
WDDWL
WWLWDThe score model makes a Plzen win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.3% vs 66.3% implied (+3.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.12 – 1.68 Plzen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 24.3% | 26.4% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.6% | +0.9% |
| Plzen win | 49.2% | 48.0% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 54.0% | -1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 33.7% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 56.4% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 36.5% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bohemians 41.8 / Plzen 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bohemians vs Plzen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.