Teplice vs Jablonec
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
LWWLW
DLWLDThe score model made a Jablonec win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teplice 1.23 – 1.32 Jablonec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice win | 33.9% | 39.0% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Jablonec win | 37.8% | 32.9% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 49.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 29.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 55.1% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 33.8% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Teplice 42.6 / Jablonec 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.