Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-30 · 20:00 CET
WLLWW
DWWWWThe score model made a Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sparta Prague 1.38 – 1.55 Slavia Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague win | 33.2% | 33.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Slavia Prague win | 40.7% | 38.7% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 53.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 32.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 58.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 36.9% | +4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sparta Prague 42.5 / Slavia Prague 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.