Plzen vs Slovacko
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
DWDLL
LDDLDThe score model made a Plzen win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plzen 2.31 – 0.83 Slovacko.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 70.0% | 70.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.6% | 18.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Slovacko win | 11.3% | 11.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | 61.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.6% | 40.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 50.8% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.2% | 42.1% | +11.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plzen 41.7 / Slovacko 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.