Liberec vs Hradec Kralove
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
WWWWD
LWDWLThe score model made a Liberec win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liberec 1.16 – 0.96 Hradec Kralove.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberec win | 39.4% | 52.8% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.3% | 26.3% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Hradec Kralove win | 29.3% | 20.9% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 48.8% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 28.4% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 50.5% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 32.8% | -9.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liberec 42.6 / Hradec Kralove 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.