Sigma Olomouc vs FK Pardubice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-23 · 20:00 CET
WLDWW
WLLLDThe score model makes a Sigma Olomouc win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.1% vs 63.2% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.69 – 0.99 FK Pardubice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sigma Olomouc win | 53.0% | 48.8% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.2% | -0.3% |
| FK Pardubice win | 21.1% | 25.0% | -3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 53.8% | -3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 32.8% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 56.3% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 36.8% | -7.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sigma Olomouc 40.9 / FK Pardubice 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.