Zlin vs Liberec
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
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WWWWDThe score model made a Liberec win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zlin 1.06 – 1.59 Liberec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zlin win | 24.3% | 22.6% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Liberec win | 48.8% | 50.0% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 47.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 27.2% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 51.6% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 32.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zlin 33.1 / Liberec 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.