Slavia Prague vs Bohemians
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-22 · 20:00 CET
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DDLWLThe score model made a Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 74%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Prague 2.18 – 0.58 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague win | 73.7% | 75.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.5% | 15.5% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Bohemians win | 7.8% | 9.4% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 63.8% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 42.8% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% | 48.3% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 43.5% | -5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Prague 42.3 / Bohemians 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.