Mlada Boleslav vs Slovacko
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
DWWLW
LDDLDThe score model made a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.78 – 1.01 Slovacko.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav win | 54.4% | 49.9% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Slovacko win | 20.5% | 23.5% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 54.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 33.3% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 56.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 36.7% | +4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav 42.4 / Slovacko 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.