Mlada Boleslav vs Slovacko
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
LWDWD
WLDLLThe score model makes a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.4% vs 64.8% implied (+4.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.78 – 1.01 Slovacko.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav win | 54.3% | 49.8% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.3% | -1.2% |
| Slovacko win | 20.6% | 23.9% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 55.8% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 35.2% | -4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 57.9% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 38.0% | +2.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav 42.6 / Slovacko 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.