Liberec vs Slavia Prague
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 20:00 CET
LLWLW
LWWWWThe score model makes an Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.0% vs 67.8% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liberec 0.89 – 1.64 Slavia Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberec win | 19.5% | 22.3% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.6% | +0.8% |
| Slavia Prague win | 54.2% | 52.1% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 52.8% | -6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 32.2% | -7.3% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 54.5% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 36.2% | -4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liberec 42 / Slavia Prague 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.