Liberec vs Slavia Prague
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 20:00 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liberec 0.89 – 1.64 Slavia Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberec win | 19.4% | 20.6% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 24.7% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Slavia Prague win | 54.1% | 54.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.5% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 31.6% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 53.7% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 36.2% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liberec 41.8 / Slavia Prague 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.