Bohemians vs Jablonec
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-02 · 20:00 CET
DDLWL
DLWLDThe score model made a Jablonec win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.06 – 1.18 Jablonec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 31.7% | 38.0% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 28.2% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Jablonec win | 37.7% | 33.8% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 48.9% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.9% | 28.6% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 54.4% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 33.7% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bohemians 38.1 / Jablonec 41.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.