Bohemians vs Jablonec
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
WLLDW
LWWWWThe score model makes an Jablonec win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 61.6% vs 53.1% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.02 – 1.20 Jablonec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 30.0% | 37.3% | -7.3% |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.3% | +2.4% |
| Jablonec win | 39.2% | 34.4% | +4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 46.9% | -8.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 26.7% | -8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 52.6% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 31.9% | -1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bohemians 38.7 / Jablonec 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.