Sparta Prague vs Teplice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
WLLWW
LWWLWThe score model made a Sparta Prague win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sparta Prague 2.08 – 0.92 Teplice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague win | 63.3% | 65.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 20.8% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Teplice win | 15.1% | 13.7% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 58.6% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 37.7% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 52.4% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 40.1% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sparta Prague 41.9 / Teplice 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.