Sparta Prague vs Teplice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
WWLWL
WWWWDThe score model makes a Sparta Prague win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Teplice win — 15.1% vs 11.4% implied (+3.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sparta Prague 2.08 – 0.92 Teplice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague win | 63.3% | 68.4% | -5.1% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 20.2% | +1.5% |
| Teplice win | 15.1% | 11.4% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 58.6% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 38.1% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 50.8% | +2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 39.9% | -3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sparta Prague 42.1 / Teplice 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.