Slovacko vs Sigma Olomouc
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
LDDLD
WLWWLThe score model made a Sigma Olomouc win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slovacko 1.05 – 1.47 Sigma Olomouc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovacko win | 26.1% | 30.7% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Sigma Olomouc win | 45.9% | 40.6% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 48.3% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 27.9% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 53.9% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 32.9% | +5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slovacko 43.7 / Sigma Olomouc 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.