Plzen vs Zlin
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 20:00 CET
WLLDD
LWLLLThe score model makes a Plzen win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 57.3% vs 44.9% implied (+12.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plzen 2.59 – 0.95 Zlin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 72.0% | 75.7% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 17.0% | 16.3% | +0.6% |
| Zlin win | 11.1% | 8.0% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 59.7% | +8.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.1% | 39.0% | +8.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 44.9% | +12.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.4% | 40.3% | +11.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plzen 42.2 / Zlin 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.