FK Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
WWLLL
WLWDWThe score model makes an Mlada Boleslav win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Mlada Boleslav win — 40.0% vs 30.0% implied (+10.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Pardubice 1.32 – 1.47 Mlada Boleslav.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Pardubice win | 33.0% | 44.2% | -11.2% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 25.9% | +1.2% |
| Mlada Boleslav win | 40.0% | 30.0% | +10.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 57.4% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 36.1% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 60.0% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 39.2% | -7.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Pardubice 38.8 / Mlada Boleslav 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.