FK Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
LLDWW
DWWLWThe score model made a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Pardubice 1.32 – 1.48 Mlada Boleslav.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Pardubice win | 32.9% | 42.2% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.3% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Mlada Boleslav win | 40.0% | 31.5% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 56.8% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 35.8% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 60.4% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 39.2% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Pardubice 38.6 / Mlada Boleslav 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.