Neratovice vs Velke Hamry
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-14 · 10:15 CET
WDWWL
WLDLWThe score model makes a Neratovice win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 61.6% vs 53.3% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neratovice 1.90 – 1.24 Velke Hamry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neratovice win | 51.9% | 62.2% | -10.3% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 20.3% | +3.5% |
| Velke Hamry win | 24.3% | 17.5% | +6.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 66.3% | -5.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 46.7% | -8.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 61.1% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 46.3% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Neratovice 30.9 / Velke Hamry 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Neratovice vs Velke Hamry in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.