Benatky n. Jiz. vs Mlada Boleslav B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-14 · 14:00 CET
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WWWWDThe score model makes a Mlada Boleslav B win the most likely outcome at 37%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.3% vs 59.2% implied (+8.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benatky n. Jiz. 1.43 – 1.45 Mlada Boleslav B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benatky n. Jiz. win | 36.5% | 39.4% | -3.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 24.6% | +1.8% |
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 37.1% | 36.0% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 61.5% | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 40.8% | -8.1% |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 64.2% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 42.2% | -4.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Benatky n. Jiz. 40.2 / Mlada Boleslav B 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.