Jablonec B vs Brozany
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-11 · 10:15 CET
DWLWW
LDLDLThe score model made a Jablonec B win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec B 1.65 – 1.14 Brozany.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec B win | 48.8% | 59.0% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 21.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Brozany win | 25.9% | 19.2% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 62.7% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 41.9% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 59.2% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | 42.5% | -6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jablonec B 43.9 / Brozany 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.