Velke Hamry vs Mlada Boleslav B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-29 · 10:30 CET
LDLWL
LDWWDThe score model made a Mlada Boleslav B win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Velke Hamry 1.24 – 1.71 Mlada Boleslav B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velke Hamry win | 27.3% | 20.8% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 21.5% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 48.3% | 57.7% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 62.6% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 42.0% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 59.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 43.0% | -8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Velke Hamry 25.2 / Mlada Boleslav B 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.