Plzen B vs Loko Praha
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-13 · 18:30 CET
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WLWDWThe score model makes a Plzen B win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 57.8% vs 50.1% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plzen B 2.19 – 1.12 Loko Praha.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen B win | 61.0% | 65.3% | -4.4% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 18.5% | +2.9% |
| Loko Praha win | 17.6% | 16.2% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 70.1% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 49.9% | -7.6% |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 62.7% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 48.6% | -4.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Plzen B 45.1 / Loko Praha 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Plzen B vs Loko Praha in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.