Aritma Prague vs Bohemians 1905 B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-10 · 10:15 CET
LLWDD
LWDDDThe score model made an Aritma Prague win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aritma Prague 1.68 – 1.63 Bohemians 1905 B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aritma Prague win | 38.9% | 41.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.4% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Bohemians 1905 B win | 36.8% | 32.9% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 59.9% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 39.6% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | 62.9% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 41.6% | +3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aritma Prague 27.7 / Bohemians 1905 B 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.