Pisek vs Plzen B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-09 · 18:00 CET
WLDDD
WWLWDThe score model made a Plzen B win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pisek 1.48 – 1.82 Plzen B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisek win | 31.0% | 40.7% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.8% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Plzen B win | 45.0% | 33.5% | +11.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | 60.3% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.0% | 40.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 63.5% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.9% | 41.5% | +12.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pisek 43.3 / Plzen B 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.