Pisek vs Motorlet Prague
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
DWLDD
WLDWWThe score model made a Pisek win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pisek 1.31 – 1.07 Motorlet Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisek win | 41.8% | 49.0% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 24.9% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Motorlet Prague win | 30.1% | 26.1% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 55.0% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 34.7% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 57.1% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 37.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pisek 40.9 / Motorlet Prague 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.