Aritma Prague vs Kraluv Dvur
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-29 · 10:15 CET
LLLWD
WLWWWThe score model made an Aritma Prague win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aritma Prague 1.52 – 1.46 Kraluv Dvur.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aritma Prague win | 39.1% | 33.1% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Kraluv Dvur win | 36.0% | 39.5% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 54.1% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 34.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 58.1% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.2% | 37.1% | +2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aritma Prague 24.8 / Kraluv Dvur 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.